The TV Ad Didn't Die — It Moved to Streaming: A Guide to Connected TV
TL;DR: Connected TV now accounts for all of the growth in US television advertising as linear spend falls every year, with IAB forecasting US CTV ad spend up 13.8% in 2026 — so the question for marketers is no longer whether to use CTV but when it beats a linear spot.
Television advertising is migrating, not dying
The obituaries for TV advertising keep being written, and they keep being wrong. What is actually happening is a migration. eMarketer data shows US linear TV ad spend declining every year — down 4.7% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and a projected 4.0% in 2027 — while Connected TV accounts for all of the growth in US TV advertising.
The money isn't leaving the living room; it's changing seats. Combined US TV and CTV ad spend will approach $100 billion in 2027 on eMarketer's projection. The screen is the same size on the wall. What's different is the pipe behind it and the data it carries.
The numbers behind the shift
CTV's momentum is steep. eMarketer figures show CTV ad spend rose by roughly $5.5 billion year on year in 2024 alone. The IAB's 2026 forecast, built on a survey of 205 US buy-side executives, put US CTV ad spend growth at 13.8% for 2026, with CTV and digital video together taking around 23% of US ad spend.
That 13.8% sits just below social media's forecast 14.6% growth and comfortably above other digital video at 9.6% — CTV is now a top-tier growth channel, not an experiment at the edge of the plan. The IAB also expects US digital video ad spend to surpass $80 billion in 2026, growing around 20% faster than the total ad market, which means CTV isn't just taking a bigger slice of a flat pie; it is one of the forces making the pie bigger.
Reframe the category: TV is becoming performance media
Here is the mental shift that matters. The old split was brand TV versus performance digital. CTV collapses it. You get the sight, sound and motion of a television spot with the targeting, frequency control and measurement of a digital buy. The right frame isn't "TV is dying" — it's "TV is becoming performance media," and that reframe changes who it's for.
Crucially, it opens the big screen to brands that could never justify a national linear spot. You no longer buy a daypart and hope the right people are watching; you buy an audience and measure what it did. That's why smaller and mid-sized advertisers now belong in a conversation that used to be reserved for brands with eight-figure budgets, and why the old question — can we afford TV — has been replaced by a better one: can we afford to be invisible on the screen our customers actually watch.
A decision framework: when CTV beats a linear spot
Use four tests. First, audience precision: if your buyer is a definable segment rather than everyone over 25, CTV's targeting wins — linear pays for waste you can't see. Second, budget scale: below the threshold where a linear buy delivers meaningful reach, CTV lets a smaller brand appear on the same screen without the same spend.
Third, measurement need: if the campaign has to prove incremental outcomes, CTV's closed loop beats linear's panel estimates. Fourth, creative agility: if you want to vary the message by audience or test variants, CTV supports it where a single linear tape cannot. Linear still wins for one job — a true mass-reach cultural moment, a final, a live event where everyone is watching at once.
For UK marketers the same logic runs through BVOD: ITVX, Channel 4's streaming inventory and similar platforms are the domestic expression of this shift, and the decision framework transfers wholesale. The headline is simple. Don't ask whether to be on television. Ask which version of television — and let the audience, the budget and the measurement answer it for you.
Quick FAQ
What is Connected TV advertising?
CTV advertising places ads inside streaming content watched on an internet-connected television — via smart TVs, streaming sticks and apps. It combines the big-screen impact of TV with the targeting and measurement of digital media.
Is traditional TV advertising actually declining?
US linear TV ad spend is falling every year — down 4.7% in 2025 and a projected 4.0% in 2027, per eMarketer — while Connected TV absorbs all of the growth. The audience and the money are migrating to streaming, not disappearing.
Can smaller brands afford Connected TV?
Yes. Because CTV is bought on audience rather than dayparts, smaller advertisers can appear on the big screen without the national spend a linear buy demands, and can measure outcomes rather than estimate reach.
I tell founders to stop thinking of TV as a brand-awareness luxury and start treating CTV as another performance line. You buy an audience, you control frequency, you measure the lift. The living-room screen is no longer gated by budget — it's gated by whether you know who you're actually trying to reach. — Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing
TV advertising isn't dying — it's becoming performance media, and that opens the big screen to brands of every size.
If you could put your brand on the living-room screen and measure every outcome, what would stop you?
If you would like to know more about this topic, please contact us on danieln@merxmarketing.co.uk
Sources: eMarketer, IAB
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Written by Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing Ltd and Marketing Minute
