IAB Raises Its 2026 US Ad-Spend Forecast to +12.3% as Social, CTV and Commerce Media Surge
TL;DR: The IAB has raised its 2026 US ad-spend growth forecast to 12.3% (from 9.5% in January), led by social media, connected TV and commerce media, with linear TV the only declining channel.
A Sharp Mid-Year Upgrade
The IAB lifted its 2026 US ad-spend growth projection to 12.3% year over year, up from the 9.5% it forecast in January, based on a survey of more than 200 brand and agency decision-makers.
An upgrade of nearly three points mid-year signals resilient demand — and a strong first half that beat expectations.
Where the Growth Is Going
The channel picture is stark. Social is forecast to grow 16.5%, connected TV 15.6%, commerce media 13.6%, paid search 8.1% and digital out-of-home 7.0%. Linear TV is the sole decliner at minus 1.5%.
The pattern confirms budgets concentrating in social, CTV and retail/commerce media, while traditional TV continues its structural slide.
What's Driving Marketers
Some 63% of marketers name customer acquisition a top priority, up nine points, while 44% cite adapting to AI-driven consumer discovery as their biggest challenge. Growth and disruption are being felt at once.
That combination — spend up, but anxiety about how AI reshapes discovery — is the defining tension of the 2026 US market.
Marketing Minute's Take
Use this forecast as a reallocation prompt, not just a mood-booster. If your mix still leans on linear TV and under-indexes on CTV and commerce media, you are planning against the direction of the market. And with 44% naming AI-driven discovery as the top challenge, the smart budget line for 2027 is the one that buys learning about it now.
Quick FAQ
What is the IAB's 2026 US ad-spend forecast?
The IAB raised its projection to 12.3% year-over-year growth, up from 9.5% in January, based on a survey of more than 200 brand and agency decision-makers.
Which channels are growing fastest?
Social (+16.5%), connected TV (+15.6%) and commerce media (+13.6%) lead, followed by paid search (+8.1%) and DOOH (+7.0%); linear TV is the only decliner at -1.5%.
What are marketers' biggest priorities and challenges?
63% name customer acquisition a top priority (up nine points), while 44% cite adapting to AI-driven consumer discovery as their biggest challenge.
A three-point mid-year upgrade is a reallocation signal, not a victory lap. If your plan still over-indexes on linear and under-invests in CTV and commerce media, you're budgeting against the market. And with 44% naming AI-driven discovery as their top worry, the wisest 2027 line item is the one that buys learning about it now. — Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing
The takeaway: budgets are concentrating in social, CTV and commerce media while linear declines — treat the IAB upgrade as a reallocation prompt.
Does your 2027 media mix follow the market's direction, or last year's habits?
If you would like to know more about this topic, please contact us on danieln@merxmarketing.co.uk
Sources: IAB, PR Newswire.
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Written by Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing Ltd and Marketing Minute
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