German Ad Market Keeps Growing to 2030 — but Linear TV Is the Structural Loser
Forecaster Madison & Wall has raised its German ad-market outlook to 2030, but the growth is almost entirely digital while linear TV keeps shrinking.
What the forecast says
Madison & Wall has lifted its German ad-market forecast, projecting continued solid growth through 2030 — and naming linear TV the big structural loser. Its baseline had German ad spend rising 5.7% in 2026 to about $53.6bn.
The channel split tells the real story: digital TV up 7.4%, out-of-home up 5.9%, while linear TV falls 3.8%, print 1.6%, and audio and direct mail 1.4% each. Digital formats are growing double-digit in places, widening the gap with traditional media.
Why 'the market is growing' is the wrong comfort
It is tempting for TV-heavy advertisers to read "market up 5.7%" and relax. That would be a mistake. The headline growth masks a redistribution: money is not lifting all channels, it is moving from linear to digital, out-of-home and retail media. The risk is not a downturn; it is backing the shrinking side of a growing market.
Our read: treat 2030 digital dominance as the base case, not an optimistic scenario. A -3.8% annual drift in linear TV compounds; model it forward and the reach you can buy there gets thinner and, per impression, dearer as inventory consolidates.
What planners should do
First, stress-test your linear-TV dependency against a multi-year decline now, rather than reacting when a campaign underdelivers. Shift incremental budget toward connected TV, digital video, out-of-home and retail media — the channels the forecast says are absorbing the growth.
Second, do not abandon reach for pure performance. The lesson is not "digital good, TV bad"; it is that the mass-reach job is migrating to BVOD and CTV. Rebuild your reach plan around where audiences are heading, and keep measuring on business outcomes so the reallocation is evidence-led, not fashion-led.
Quick FAQ
How fast is the German ad market growing?
Madison & Wall's baseline forecast had 2026 spend up 5.7% to about $53.6bn, with solid growth projected through 2030.
Which channels win and lose?
Digital TV (+7.4%) and out-of-home (+5.9%) grow, while linear TV (-3.8%), print (-1.6%) and audio and direct mail (-1.4% each) decline.
What should advertisers do?
Model a multi-year linear-TV decline now and shift incremental budget toward CTV, digital video, OOH and retail media.
A growing ad market is exactly where complacency hides. German spend is rising, but it's moving from linear TV to digital, out-of-home and retail media — so the danger isn't a recession, it's sitting on the shrinking side of a growing pie. Model the -3.8% linear drift forward and you'll rebuild your plan today, not in 2029. — Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing
A growing market can still leave you behind — the money is moving off linear TV, so reallocate to CTV, OOH and retail media before the decline compounds.
Is your TV budget riding the growth in German ad spend — or the part of it that's quietly shrinking?
If you would like to know more about this topic, please contact us on danieln@merxmarketing.co.uk
Sources: Horizont, turi2 (Madison & Wall).
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Germany's Summer 2026 'Ad Favourites' Study Lands, Framed by the World Cup and the Discounter Ad War
Written by Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing Ltd and Marketing Minute
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