Streaming Just Overtook Classic TV and Radio in German Ad Money for the First Time
Updated: 1 day ago
Vaunet's autumn forecast, reported 21 October 2026, puts German streaming revenue at EUR8.6bn, a 52% share, overtaking linear TV and radio for the first time.
A line finally crossed
German media has passed a milestone it has been approaching for years. The autumn forecast from industry body Vaunet, reported on 21 October 2026, shows streaming overtaking classic linear TV and radio in revenue for the first time.
The numbers frame the shift. Total 2026 audio and audiovisual revenue is forecast to rise 1.8% to around EUR16.3bn, of which EUR6.4bn is advertising. Within that, streaming, counting both subscription fees and advertising, reaches EUR8.6bn, a 52% share, up from just 26% in 2019.
In other words, in the space of seven years, streaming has doubled its slice of the German audio and AV market and nudged past the linear incumbents that defined broadcast advertising for generations. The tipping point everyone forecast has quietly arrived.
It is worth being clear about what the EUR8.6bn figure contains, because it flatters streaming slightly. It bundles subscription fees with advertising, so part of streaming's lead reflects consumers paying for content rather than advertisers paying for audiences. Even so, the direction is unambiguous: whichever way the revenue is sliced, the money and the attention are migrating off the linear schedule and onto on-demand platforms, and the forecast only confirms a trend already visible in viewing data.
The concentration problem underneath the growth
There is a second figure that deserves as much attention as the headline. Four platforms, Alphabet, Amazon, ByteDance and Meta, take 72% of German video-streaming ad revenue. The growth is real, but it is pooling in a very small number of hands.
For advertisers, that concentration is a double-edged sword. On one side, it simplifies reach: a handful of platforms can deliver most of the streaming audience. On the other, it hands enormous pricing and rule-making power to a few gatekeepers, the same dynamic that made search and social advertising so unavoidable and so expensive.
The lesson from previous platform waves is that early concentration tends to harden, not loosen. Advertisers who assume a competitive marketplace will emerge may find the terms set long before they arrive.
There is a notable absence in that list of four. The dominant video-streaming ad sellers, Alphabet, Amazon, ByteDance and Meta, are global technology platforms, not the broadcasters who built German television. The local incumbents that still own the linear schedule command a shrinking share of the growth, which is why so many of them are racing to build their own streaming and connected-TV ad businesses before the global platforms lock in their lead for good.
What marketers should do with this
The transferable action is a planning reset. If streaming now commands the majority of audio and AV revenue, media plans built around a linear-first assumption are planning for a market that no longer exists. Connected TV and streaming should be treated as the core of video strategy, not the experimental line.
At the same time, the 72% concentration is a reason for discipline, not blind spend. Marketers should push hard on measurement, transparency and the ability to compare performance across the dominant platforms, precisely because those platforms have little incentive to make themselves comparable.
The broadest takeaway is that this is not a uniquely German story. The same structural shift, streaming overtaking linear while ad money concentrates among a few global platforms, is playing out across mature markets. Germany simply crossed the line on the record this quarter.
One practical reallocation deserves emphasis. Many media plans still carry a reach-building linear budget out of habit and a connected-TV budget as a bolt-on. The Vaunet numbers argue for inverting that default: connected TV and streaming become the planned backbone of video reach, with linear bought deliberately where it still delivers a specific audience, rather than retained as the assumed centre of gravity. Habit is the enemy here, and a market that has crossed this threshold rewards marketers willing to question their own templates.
Quick FAQ
What did Vaunet's forecast show?
That German streaming revenue, including fees and ads, reaches EUR8.6bn in 2026, a 52% share of audio and AV revenue, overtaking linear TV and radio for the first time. Total 2026 revenue is forecast at around EUR16.3bn.
How concentrated is streaming ad spend?
Four platforms, Alphabet, Amazon, ByteDance and Meta, take 72% of German video-streaming ad revenue, giving a handful of global players most of the market.
Is this only happening in Germany?
No. The shift from linear to streaming, alongside ad-spend concentration among a few global platforms, is playing out across mature markets. Germany crossed the threshold on the record this quarter.
The milestone everyone quotes is streaming overtaking linear. The number that should keep marketers up is the other one: four platforms taking seventy-two percent of video-streaming ad money. Growth is healthy, concentration is not, and early concentration tends to harden. Plan for streaming as your core, but negotiate like the gatekeepers you are dealing with. — Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing
Streaming is now the core of video advertising, not the experiment, but with 72% of spend in four platforms' hands, discipline on measurement matters more than ever.
Is your video strategy still built on a linear-first assumption the market has already left behind?
If you would like to know more about this topic, please contact us on danieln@merxmarketing.co.uk
Sources: Horizont, W&V, Meedia
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Written by Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing Ltd and Marketing Minute
