Kroger's AI Study Says It Can Predict Which Ads Will Sell — at 81% Accuracy
Updated: 6 days ago
A study from Kroger, Vidmob and MMA Global finds AI 'predictive creative scoring' can forecast e-commerce conversion with 81% accuracy before any media is spent — and align creative to lift conversions up to fourfold.
Scoring the ad before you buy the media
Retail giant Kroger has teamed with creative-data platform Vidmob and trade body MMA Global on a study testing whether AI can predict e-commerce conversion from the creative itself — before a campaign runs. The answer, they say, is yes.
Analysing more than 1,900 video and image assets across Meta and Google's DV360, the model hit 81% accuracy in predicting which creative would convert. It scores assets on messaging, narrative structure, branding and human interaction to flag winners and losers in advance.
The numbers that should worry wasteful advertisers
Two figures stand out. When creative was aligned to the AI's recommendations, conversion rates improved up to fourfold. And reallocating media budget toward higher-scoring creative could roughly double conversions from the same spend.
There was a creative lesson too: human-focused ads outperformed ads centred on products and shopping. 'For too long, the industry existed where creative investments are labeled non-working and media investments are working. That's absurd,' said Vidmob founder Alex Collmer.
Marketing Minute's read: creative is a media-efficiency lever
The quiet revolution here is pre-flight prediction. For years, optimisation meant launching, waiting and cutting losers after the money was gone. Scoring creative beforehand turns 'creative quality' from a subjective debate into a measurable input to media ROI.
What should SME and challenger marketers do? You don't need Kroger's budget to apply the principle. Score your own creative against a simple checklist — clear human focus, strong early branding, a single message — and kill weak assets before you fund them. The cheapest performance gain is not spending behind creative that was never going to work.
Quick FAQ
What is predictive creative scoring?
An AI method that evaluates an ad's creative elements — messaging, structure, branding, human interaction — to forecast how well it will convert before any media money is spent.
How accurate was Kroger's model?
The study reported 81% accuracy in predicting e-commerce conversion across more than 1,900 assets on Meta and Google DV360.
What creative performed best?
Human-focused ads outperformed product- and shopping-focused ads, and aligning creative to the AI's recommendations lifted conversion up to fourfold.
This is the most important shift in performance marketing right now: creative stops being the 'soft' part of the plan and becomes a measurable media-efficiency lever. If you can predict a dud before launch, you've just found budget you didn't know you were wasting. — Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing
The cheapest performance gain in 2026 isn't better bidding — it's refusing to fund creative that was never going to convert.
How much of your media budget is quietly running behind creative you've never scored?
If you would like to know more about this topic, please contact us on danieln@merxmarketing.co.uk
Sources: Marketing Dive, MMA Global, Progressive Grocer, BusinessWire.
Related reading
Written by Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing Ltd and Marketing Minute
