Adobe Forecasts a Record $275.1B US Online Holiday Season
Updated: 6 days ago
Adobe's annual holiday forecast projects US online sales will reach a record $275.1 billion this November and December, up 6.7% year on year, even as consumers feel financial strain — a key planning number for retail and e-commerce marketers.
What Adobe Is Forecasting
Adobe's annual holiday forecast projects that US online sales will hit a record $275.1 billion across November and December, a 6.7% increase on last year. The growth comes despite what Adobe describes as continued consumer strain.
The figure is one of the most-watched numbers in retail planning, drawn from Adobe Analytics data covering trillions of visits to US retail sites.
What's Driving the Growth
Rising online sales amid squeezed budgets point to shoppers hunting harder for value: leaning into discounts, buy-now-pay-later and mobile checkout rather than simply spending more freely. Growth is coming from behaviour shifting online, not from carefree consumers.
For marketers, that means the season will be won on price perception, convenience and timing far more than on brand sentiment alone. The demand is there; capturing it is a battle of execution.
Marketing Minute's Take
A record top line masks a tougher reality underneath: people are spending online because they are looking for deals, not because they feel rich. Brands that read the headline as 'shoppers are back' and dial down on value messaging will misfire.
The smart move is to compete on frictionless value — clear pricing, fast checkout, flexible payment — rather than assuming a rising tide lifts everyone. In a strained market, the easiest, cheapest, clearest option wins the click.
What Businesses Should Do
Plan Q4 around value and convenience, not volume assumptions. Audit your checkout, your mobile experience and your payment options now, because that is where a strained-but-spending shopper decides between you and a competitor.
Get your timing and inventory right against the big online dates. With growth concentrated online, the retailers that show up with the right offer at the right moment will take a disproportionate share.
Quick FAQ
How big will the US online holiday season be?
Adobe forecasts a record $275.1 billion in US online sales across November and December 2026, up 6.7% year on year.
Is spending up because consumers feel confident?
Not exactly — Adobe notes the growth comes despite consumer strain, suggesting shoppers are moving online to hunt for value rather than spending more freely.
Why does the Adobe forecast matter?
It is one of the most-watched retail planning numbers, based on Adobe Analytics data, and shapes how brands set Q4 budgets, pricing and promotions.
A record number hides a harder truth: people are shopping online to find deals, not because they feel flush. Brands that mistake the headline for renewed confidence and ease off value messaging will hand the season to whoever makes buying easiest and cheapest. — Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing
A rising online total doesn't mean confident shoppers — in a strained market, the clearest, cheapest, easiest option wins the sale.
Is your Q4 plan built for confident spenders or value-hunting ones — and which are you actually going to get?
If you would like to know more about this topic, please contact us on danieln@merxmarketing.co.uk
Sources: Adweek, the Adobe newsroom and Chain Store Age.
Related reading
Written by Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing Ltd and Marketing Minute
