Retail Media to Pass $200bn in 2026 — But WARC Warns Growth Is Slowing
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
WARC forecasts global retail media ad spend will reach $200.4bn in 2026 and $223.4bn in 2027 — but momentum is easing and analysts are warning about ad clutter and the ‘enshittification’ of retail media environments, a signal for UK retailers to compete on quality, not just inventory.
The numbers
WARC Media’s latest forecast puts global retail media ad spend at $200.4bn in 2026, rising to $223.4bn in 2027 — crossing the $200bn line for the first time. But the same forecast flags decelerating growth, and trade coverage has framed the slowdown as a warning sign for advertising’s fastest-growing channel.
The blunter language in the commentary is telling. Analysts are talking about ad clutter and the “enshittification” of retail media — the idea that platforms, chasing short-term revenue, degrade the shopping experience until both shoppers and advertisers tire of it.
Why the slowdown was inevitable
Retail media’s explosive growth was always partly a land grab: retailers switching on ad inventory they already owned, and brands reallocating trade and shopper budgets into it. That one-off reallocation is now largely done. From here, growth has to come from genuine incrementality and better performance, not just from newly opened inventory.
That’s a healthier but harder phase. When every grocer, pharmacy and marketplace has a retail media network, the differentiator stops being “do you have one?” and becomes “is yours actually worth buying?” Quality of measurement, audience and on-site experience start to matter more than sheer reach.
Marketing Minute’s read: the flight to quality starts now
For UK retailers — from the grocers to Boots and the marketplaces — the message is to resist the temptation to maximise ad load. The enshittification warning is really a warning about killing the golden goose: pack too many ads into the shopping journey and you erode the very experience that made the audience valuable. Restraint is a competitive advantage.
For brands buying retail media, the slowdown is permission to get pickier. As budgets stop growing automatically, demand real incrementality testing, transparent measurement and clean placements. The networks that can prove genuine lift will keep growing; the ones relying on cluttered inventory will find budgets quietly rerouted.
What businesses should do now
Retailers should treat ad experience as a product to protect, not a lever to pull to the maximum. Brands should tie retail media renewals to proof of incremental sales, not just impressions. And smaller retailers weighing a network should compete on quality and closeness to purchase rather than trying to out-scale the giants.
Quick FAQ
How big is retail media in 2026?
WARC forecasts global retail media ad spend of $200.4bn in 2026, rising to $223.4bn in 2027 — the first time the channel has crossed the $200bn mark.
Is retail media growth slowing?
Yes. WARC’s forecast shows decelerating growth, and analysts are warning about ad clutter and the ‘enshittification’ of retail media as the early land-grab phase ends.
What should advertisers do?
Get pickier: tie spend to proven incremental sales and transparent measurement rather than raw impressions, and favour networks with clean, high-quality placements.
Retail media just proved it can hit $200bn — and immediately reminded everyone that scale isn’t the same as value. The networks that win the next phase won’t be the ones cramming the most ads into the basket; they’ll be the ones that protect the shopping experience and can prove real incremental sales. Restraint is about to become the smartest growth strategy. — Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing
The land grab is over: retail media’s next growth has to come from proven incrementality and a protected shopping experience, not from cramming in more ad inventory.
Is your retail media spend tied to proof of incremental sales — or just to a growing pile of impressions?
If you would like to know more about this topic, please contact us on danieln@merxmarketing.co.uk
Sources: WARC, MediaBrief, DecisionMarketing.
Related reading
Written by Daniel Nikolla, Founder of Merx Marketing Ltd and Marketing Minute
Comments