UK consumer confidence jumps 6 points — the biggest lift since 2023

The GfK Consumer Confidence Index rose 6 points to -17 in July 2026 — the largest monthly increase since November 2023 — with every sub-measure improving as shoppers turn cautiously more optimistic heading into the autumn.

What the index shows

GfK's headline Consumer Confidence Index climbed to -17 in July, up 6 points from June, the biggest monthly rise since November 2023. All five sub-measures improved: the Major Purchase Index rose 8 points to -12, expectations for the general economy over the next 12 months rose 8 points to -28, and personal finances for the year ahead edged up 3 points to +1.

The fieldwork ran from 1 to 14 July 2026 among 2,012 UK adults aged 16 and over. GfK's Neil Bellamy attributed the lift to the arrival of a new prime minister, hopes of Middle East and fuel-price stability, and the feel-good factor around the FIFA World Cup.

Still negative — but momentum matters

A word of caution: at -17 the index is still firmly below zero, so this is improving pessimism rather than genuine optimism. Confidence has been depressed for a long time and one strong month does not reverse that.

But for marketers, direction and velocity are what count. Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of discretionary spend, and the 8-point jump in the Major Purchase Index — the measure most tied to buying big-ticket items — is the single most useful signal in this release.

How to use this

Our read: sentiment leads spending, so a rising Major Purchase Index opens a window for considered-purchase categories such as home, technology, travel and automotive. If people feel readier to make big buys, the brands that show up with confidence now will bank the demand later.

Practically, brief for confidence rather than caution, and consider bringing forward some autumn and Christmas activity to catch the improving mood before it is priced in by competitors. Sentiment can turn quickly, so treat this as a cue to lean in while momentum is on your side.

Quick FAQ

What is the latest UK consumer confidence figure?

The GfK Consumer Confidence Index rose to -17 in July 2026, up 6 points on June — the biggest monthly increase since November 2023.

Why did UK consumer confidence rise in July 2026?

GfK cited the arrival of a new prime minister, hopes of Middle East and fuel-price stability, and the feel-good factor of the FIFA World Cup. All five sub-measures of the index improved.

Why does the Major Purchase Index matter to marketers?

It tracks willingness to buy big-ticket items and is a leading indicator of discretionary demand. Its 8-point rise suggests a window is opening for considered-purchase categories like home, tech, travel and automotive.

— Christie McCormack, Retail & Consumer Editor at Marketing Minute

This is improving pessimism, not optimism — but the rising Major Purchase Index is an early green light for considered-purchase categories to lean in.

Is your autumn plan built for cautious consumers — or ready to catch a mood that's quietly turning more confident?

If you would like to know more about this topic, please contact us on danieln@merxmarketing.co.uk

Related reading

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UK Shopper Behaviour in 2026: The Consumer Trends Every Retailer Should Know

Written by Christie McCormack, Retail & Consumer Editor at Marketing Minute