Britain's £17.9bn Golden Quarter just got tougher to win
- Aug 13
- 2 min read
Updated: 4 days ago
Epsilon forecasts £17.9bn of UK spend across Black Friday and the Christmas sales, but with nearly three-quarters of shoppers planning to trim non-essentials, this Golden Quarter will be harder than ever for brands to win.
Big spend, cautious shoppers
Epsilon's research puts expected UK consumer spend across the peak Black Friday and Christmas sales period at around £17.9bn. On the surface that is a huge prize — but the mood underneath is defensive.
The same study finds nearly three-quarters of shoppers plan to cut back on non-essentials during the peak period. Consumers still intend to spend, but they are more selective, more deal-driven and less loyal by default.
Why 'value' is not the same as 'cheap'
The instinct in a cautious market is to discount hard. But a race to the lowest price erodes margin and trains shoppers to wait for the next markdown. The brands that win the Golden Quarter reframe value around relevance, timing and trust.
Our read at Marketing Minute: with £17.9bn on the table and buyers tightening up, the battle is for consideration before the sale. Brands that have built memory and distinctiveness through the year get onto the shortlist; those relying purely on peak-period discounts fight for scraps on price.
What brands should do now
Plan for a shopper who is spending, but scrutinising. Lead with clear, credible value — bundles, loyalty rewards and useful timing — rather than blanket price cuts that hollow out margin.
Above all, do not switch off brand-building in the run-up. The demand you capture in November was largely built in the months before. The retailers who protect that investment enter peak season already on the list.
Quick FAQ
How much will UK shoppers spend this Golden Quarter?
Epsilon forecasts around £17.9bn of UK consumer spend across the Black Friday and Christmas sales period in 2026.
Are UK shoppers cutting back?
Yes. Epsilon's research found nearly three-quarters of shoppers plan to cut back on non-essentials during the peak period, making them more selective and deal-driven.
How should brands respond to cautious Golden Quarter shoppers?
Reframe value around relevance, loyalty and trust rather than blanket discounts, and keep investing in brand-building beforehand so you make the shopper's shortlist before the sales even begin.
— Christie McCormack, Retail & Consumer Editor at Marketing Minute
The takeaway: in a cautious peak season, the demand you win in November was built months earlier — protect brand-building, don't just deepen discounts.
Is your Golden Quarter plan built on brand equity, or on how low you can go on price?
If you would like to know more about this topic, please contact us on danieln@merxmarketing.co.uk
Sources: Epsilon, Campaign, Performance Marketing World, Retail Focus.
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Written by Christie McCormack, Retail & Consumer Editor at Marketing Minute
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